November 8, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Salas | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 009 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Thiago Tavares's 10-fight experience advantage (14 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Tavares for the expected result. Had Justin Salas pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Justin Salas | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Salas | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 986 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +44 |
Thiago Tavares earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Justin Salas | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 892 | 971 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Thiago Tavares slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 63.6% vs 23.5% accuracy. Thiago Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Salas | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:17 | 1:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 061 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Thiago Tavares controlled Justin Salas on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:18 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Justin Salas | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 1 005 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Thiago Tavares demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Thiago Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Salas's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Salas | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Thiago Tavares started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Salas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Salas | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.