June 16, 2017
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Scoggins | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 981 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +37 |
Yuta Sasaki overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Justin Scoggins.
| Metric | Justin Scoggins | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 992 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Scoggins | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:19 | 3:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 047 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +74 |
Yuta Sasaki earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:19, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Justin Scoggins was submitted.
| Metric | Justin Scoggins | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 073 | 933 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Justin Scoggins controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (74 vs 25 total strikes), significant strike advantage (37 vs 21), 1 knockdown. However, since Justin Scoggins lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Yuta Sasaki's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Scoggins | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:30 | 1:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 986 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
Yuta Sasaki controlled Justin Scoggins on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 1:08 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Justin Scoggins | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 210 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 026 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +49 |
Yuta Sasaki demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Yuta Sasaki capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Scoggins's 210-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Scoggins | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Yuta Sasaki started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Scoggins is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Scoggins | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 992 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.