March 22, 2024
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Tafa | Karl Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +40 |
Karl Williams overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Justin Tafa.
| Metric | Justin Tafa | Karl Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Tafa | Karl Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 176 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Karl Williams earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Justin Tafa | Karl Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 123 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 092 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Karl Williams dominated the striking exchanges with 123 vs 27 total strikes, 40 vs 21 significant strikes, 65.6% vs 48.8% accuracy. Karl Williams capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Tafa | Karl Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 10:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 979 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -110 | +110 |
Karl Williams dominated Justin Tafa on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 10:31 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Tafa | Karl Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | 316 |
| Activity ELO | 1 065 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Karl Williams demonstrated standard activity with 316 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Karl Williams capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Tafa's 197-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Tafa | Karl Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
Karl Williams extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Tafa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Tafa | Karl Williams |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.