April 16, 2021
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justine Kish | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 987 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +32 |
Tracy Cortez overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Justine Kish.
| Metric | Justine Kish | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justine Kish | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 004 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Tracy Cortez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Justine Kish | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 66 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 119 | 112 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 72 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 948 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Tracy Cortez edged the striking exchanges with 66 vs 55 significant strikes, 58.9% vs 46.2% accuracy. Tracy Cortez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justine Kish | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:38 | 6:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 944 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Tracy Cortez dominated Justine Kish on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 6:26 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Justine Kish | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Tracy Cortez demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tracy Cortez capitalized on this activity level, while Justine Kish's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justine Kish | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
Tracy Cortez extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justine Kish is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justine Kish | Tracy Cortez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 977 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.