February 8, 2019
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Raulian Paiva |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 085 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Raulian Paiva |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Raulian Paiva |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 045 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Kai Kara-France receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Raulian Paiva |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 67 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 168 | 184 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 110 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Raulian Paiva controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (67 vs 58). However, since Raulian Paiva lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Kai Kara-France's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Raulian Paiva |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 1:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 066 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Kai Kara-France edged out Raulian Paiva on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:20 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Raulian Paiva |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 079 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -20 |
Kai Kara-France demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Kai Kara-France capitalized on this activity level, while Raulian Paiva's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Raulian Paiva |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Kai Kara-France extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Raulian Paiva is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Raulian Paiva |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.