March 5, 2021
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Rogerio Bontorin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 100 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Kai Kara-France's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kai Kara-France for the expected result. Had Rogerio Bontorin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Rogerio Bontorin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 050 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Rogerio Bontorin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:55 | 4:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 117 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -39 |
Kai Kara-France earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:55, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Rogerio Bontorin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 096 | 911 |
| ELO Change | +96 | -96 |
Kai Kara-France controlled the striking exchanges with 13 vs 6 significant strikes, 59.1% vs 35.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kai Kara-France capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Rogerio Bontorin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 3:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 021 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Kai Kara-France did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rogerio Bontorin on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Rogerio Bontorin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 385 |
| Activity ELO | 1 129 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -17 |
Kai Kara-France demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kai Kara-France capitalized on this activity level, while Rogerio Bontorin's 385-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Rogerio Bontorin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 064 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Kai Kara-France started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rogerio Bontorin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Rogerio Bontorin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 050 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.