August 16, 2024
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 154 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Kai Kara-France's 7-fight experience advantage (12 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kai Kara-France for the expected result. Had Steve Erceg pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 080 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:04 | 4:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 316 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -33 |
Kai Kara-France earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:04, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 299 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +101 | -101 |
Kai Kara-France dominated the striking exchanges with 18 vs 9 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Kai Kara-France capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 146 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 441 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -18 |
Kai Kara-France demonstrated extended layoff with 441 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Kai Kara-France capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Erceg's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 103 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Kai Kara-France started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Erceg is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kai Kara-France | Steve Erceg |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.