September 14, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kajan Johnson | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 087 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Rustam Khabilov's 4-fight experience advantage (11 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rustam Khabilov for the expected result. Had Kajan Johnson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kajan Johnson | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kajan Johnson | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 128 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rustam Khabilov receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Kajan Johnson | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 123 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 086 | 1 282 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Kajan Johnson controlled the striking through superior volume (57 vs 34 total strikes), significant strike advantage (44 vs 17), superior accuracy (35.8% vs 24.3%). However, since Kajan Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rustam Khabilov's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kajan Johnson | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 4:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 076 | 1 420 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Rustam Khabilov controlled Kajan Johnson on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:10 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kajan Johnson | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 378 |
| Activity ELO | 1 066 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +10 |
Rustam Khabilov demonstrated extended layoff with 378 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Rustam Khabilov capitalized on this activity level, while Kajan Johnson's 49-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kajan Johnson | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +36 |
Rustam Khabilov continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Kajan Johnson's now at 0.
| Metric | Kajan Johnson | Rustam Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

