October 20, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 420 | 1 398 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +76 |
Khamzat Chimaev overcame a 11-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 18 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kamaru Usman.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 348 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 665 | 1 544 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Khamzat Chimaev earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 107 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 615 | 1 579 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Khamzat Chimaev controlled the striking exchanges with 107 vs 58 total strikes. Khamzat Chimaev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 7:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 1 608 | 1 580 |
| ELO Change | -158 | +158 |
Khamzat Chimaev dominated Kamaru Usman on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 7:16 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 406 |
| Activity ELO | 1 462 | 1 387 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +26 |
Khamzat Chimaev demonstrated extended layoff with 406 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Khamzat Chimaev capitalized on this activity level, while Kamaru Usman's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 610 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +112 |
Khamzat Chimaev continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Kamaru Usman's now at 0.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 209 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.