March 17, 2023
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 464 | 1 477 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +40 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (17 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 382 | 1 376 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +83 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Leon Edwards captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 689 | 1 687 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Leon Edwards earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 87 | 120 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 205 | 161 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 113 | 123 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 655 | 1 620 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Leon Edwards controlled the striking exchanges with 120 vs 87 significant strikes, 74.5% vs 42.4% accuracy. Leon Edwards capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 15 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 766 | 1 597 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Leon Edwards did not secure a significant ground advantage against Kamaru Usman on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 490 | 1 486 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +31 |
Leon Edwards demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Leon Edwards capitalized on this activity level, while Kamaru Usman's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 649 | 1 440 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +46 |
Leon Edwards extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kamaru Usman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 236 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.