November 18, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -31 |
Kamaru Usman overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Warlley Alves.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 083 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 213 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Kamaru Usman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 71 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 150 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 129 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 242 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Kamaru Usman dominated the striking exchanges with 129 vs 26 total strikes, 71 vs 25 significant strikes, 47.3% vs 34.2% accuracy. Kamaru Usman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:22 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 409 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -70 |
Kamaru Usman controlled Warlley Alves on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 5:22 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 133 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -22 |
Kamaru Usman demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kamaru Usman capitalized on this activity level, while Warlley Alves's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -21 |
Kamaru Usman extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Warlley Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kamaru Usman | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 083 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.