October 6, 2023
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kanako Murata | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 015 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Vanessa Demopoulos's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vanessa Demopoulos for the expected result. Had Kanako Murata pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kanako Murata | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kanako Murata | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 977 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Vanessa Demopoulos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Kanako Murata | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 65 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 974 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Vanessa Demopoulos edged the striking exchanges. Vanessa Demopoulos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kanako Murata | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:10 | 0:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 23 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 056 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Vanessa Demopoulos did not secure a significant ground advantage against Kanako Murata on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:42 of control time, 14 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Kanako Murata | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 840 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +33 |
Vanessa Demopoulos demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Vanessa Demopoulos capitalized on this activity level, while Kanako Murata's 840-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kanako Murata | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Vanessa Demopoulos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kanako Murata is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kanako Murata | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 977 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.