March 11, 2022
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 009 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Khalil Rountree Jr.'s 3-fight experience advantage (12 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Khalil Rountree Jr. for the expected result. Had Karl Roberson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:25 | 0:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 033 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +60 |
Khalil Rountree Jr. gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 920 | 1 228 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Khalil Rountree Jr. dominated the striking exchanges with 26 vs 17 significant strikes, 37.7% vs 60.7% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Khalil Rountree Jr. capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 906 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 323 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 043 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Khalil Rountree Jr. demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Khalil Rountree Jr. capitalized on this activity level, while Karl Roberson's 323-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 998 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Khalil Rountree Jr. extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karl Roberson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

