June 12, 2020
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:17 | 4:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 091 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +64 |
Marvin Vettori earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:17, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 64 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 010 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -93 | +93 |
Marvin Vettori dominated the striking exchanges with 60 vs 4 total strikes, 45 vs 4 significant strikes, 70.3% vs 25.0% accuracy. Marvin Vettori capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:19 | 2:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 43 |
| Ground ELO | 1 007 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -103 | +103 |
Marvin Vettori dominated Karl Roberson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:05 of control time, 43 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 245 |
| Activity ELO | 1 084 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Marvin Vettori demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marvin Vettori capitalized on this activity level, while Karl Roberson's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 039 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
Marvin Vettori extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karl Roberson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.