November 8, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 106 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Karl Roberson's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Karl Roberson for the expected result. Had Roman Kopylov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 047 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:01 | 4:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 130 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -32 |
Karl Roberson earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:01, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Roman Kopylov was submitted.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 117 | 95 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 103 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Karl Roberson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 43 vs 37 significant strikes. Karl Roberson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:56 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 110 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Karl Roberson controlled Roman Kopylov on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:56 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 105 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -17 |
Karl Roberson demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Karl Roberson capitalized on this activity level, while Roman Kopylov's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -19 |
Karl Roberson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roman Kopylov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 047 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

