July 12, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 082 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Karl Roberson's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Karl Roberson for the expected result. Had Wellington Turman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 028 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 081 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Karl Roberson receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 80 | 51 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 084 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Karl Roberson controlled the striking exchanges with 79 vs 38 total strikes, 50 vs 25 significant strikes, 62.5% vs 49.0% accuracy. Karl Roberson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:47 | 6:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 27 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 062 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Karl Roberson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Wellington Turman on the ground with 0 takedowns, 5:47 of control time, 27 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 071 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -19 |
Karl Roberson demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Karl Roberson capitalized on this activity level, while Wellington Turman's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 038 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Karl Roberson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Wellington Turman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karl Roberson | Wellington Turman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 028 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

