March 10, 2023
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karl Williams | Lukasz Brzeski |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 060 | 915 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Karl Williams | Lukasz Brzeski |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karl Williams | Lukasz Brzeski |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 041 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Karl Williams earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Karl Williams | Lukasz Brzeski |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 46 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 120 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 067 | 917 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -67 |
Karl Williams dominated the striking exchanges with 120 vs 49 total strikes, 38 vs 26 significant strikes, 65.5% vs 56.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Karl Williams capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karl Williams | Lukasz Brzeski |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:13 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 109 | 874 |
| ELO Change | +109 | -109 |
Karl Williams landed 1 knockdown followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Karl Williams | Lukasz Brzeski |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 020 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Karl Williams demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Karl Williams capitalized on this activity level, while Lukasz Brzeski's 211-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karl Williams | Lukasz Brzeski |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 022 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Karl Williams started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lukasz Brzeski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karl Williams | Lukasz Brzeski |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

