March 25, 2022
Women's Bantamweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Sara McMann's 8-fight experience advantage (13 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sara McMann for the expected result. Had Karol Rosa pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 050 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 073 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Sara McMann earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 92 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 110 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Karol Rosa controlled the striking through superior volume (92 vs 73 total strikes). However, since Karol Rosa lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sara McMann's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:56 | 10:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 102 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Sara McMann controlled Karol Rosa on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 10:27 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 427 |
| Activity ELO | 1 066 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +20 |
Sara McMann demonstrated extended layoff with 427 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Sara McMann capitalized on this activity level, while Karol Rosa's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +28 |
Sara McMann started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karol Rosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karol Rosa | Sara McMann |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 050 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.