March 29, 2019
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +34 |
Michelle Waterson-Gomez overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 032 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 029 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Michelle Waterson-Gomez earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 64 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 118 | 149 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 031 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Michelle Waterson-Gomez slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 64 vs 57 significant strikes. Michelle Waterson-Gomez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:55 | 3:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 070 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Michelle Waterson-Gomez controlled Karolina Kowalkiewicz on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:34 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 122 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +41 |
Michelle Waterson-Gomez demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michelle Waterson-Gomez capitalized on this activity level, while Karolina Kowalkiewicz's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 048 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +28 |
Michelle Waterson-Gomez extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.