July 29, 2016
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -31 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rose Namajunas.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 101 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Karolina Kowalkiewicz receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 84 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 242 | 145 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 128 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 102 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz dominated the striking exchanges with 128 vs 74 total strikes, 84 vs 70 significant strikes, 34.7% vs 48.3% accuracy. Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:18 | 2:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 088 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rose Namajunas on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:18 of control time, 7 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 83 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 138 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -24 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 83 days since her last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this activity level, while Rose Namajunas's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 077 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -22 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rose Namajunas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.