November 11, 2022
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 041 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz's 10-fight experience advantage (14 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Karolina Kowalkiewicz for the expected result. Had Silvana Gomez Juarez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 014 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 047 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 74 | 77 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 202 | 263 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 994 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:03 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 049 | 842 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged out Silvana Gomez Juarez on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:03 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 099 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -17 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this activity level, while Silvana Gomez Juarez's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 034 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Silvana Gomez Juarez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 009 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

