May 19, 2023
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz's 10-fight experience advantage (15 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Karolina Kowalkiewicz for the expected result. Had Vanessa Demopoulos pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 093 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 139 | 68 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 237 | 221 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 148 | 83 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 040 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz dominated the striking exchanges with 148 vs 83 total strikes, 139 vs 68 significant strikes, 58.6% vs 30.8% accuracy. Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:52 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 076 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz did not secure a significant ground advantage against Vanessa Demopoulos on the ground with 1:52 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 125 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this activity level, while Vanessa Demopoulos's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 063 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -22 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Vanessa Demopoulos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Vanessa Demopoulos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 032 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.