February 21, 2020
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 011 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +31 |
Yan Xiaonan overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 992 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 957 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Yan Xiaonan earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 93 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 178 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 157 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 960 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Yan Xiaonan dominated the striking exchanges with 157 vs 51 total strikes, 93 vs 38 significant strikes. Yan Xiaonan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:44 | 5:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 959 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Yan Xiaonan dominated Karolina Kowalkiewicz on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 5:07 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 260 |
| Activity ELO | 1 074 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Yan Xiaonan demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Yan Xiaonan capitalized on this activity level, while Karolina Kowalkiewicz's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 007 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +32 |
Yan Xiaonan continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Karolina Kowalkiewicz's now at 0.
| Metric | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.