Katlyn Cerminara vs Liz Carmouche

November 11, 2016

Women's Bantamweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

998
(-32)
Katlyn Cerminara
Winner: Liz Carmouche
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Katlyn Cerminara-32
Liz Carmouche+31
1020
(+31)
Liz Carmouche

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Katlyn Cerminara: -39Liz Carmouche: +39

Performance Statistics

MetricKatlyn CerminaraLiz Carmouche
Total UFC Fights26
Experience Gap-44
Experience ELO1 0251 020
ELO Change-39+39
💡

What Happened

Liz Carmouche's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Liz Carmouche for the expected result. Had Katlyn Cerminara pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Katlyn Cerminara: -23Liz Carmouche: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricKatlyn CerminaraLiz Carmouche
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9971 004
ELO Change-23+23
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Katlyn Cerminara: -12Liz Carmouche: +12

Performance Statistics

MetricKatlyn CerminaraLiz Carmouche
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 0351 017
ELO Change-12+12
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Liz Carmouche receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Katlyn Cerminara: -23Liz Carmouche: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricKatlyn CerminaraLiz Carmouche
Significant Strikes Landed2227
Significant Strikes Attempted11564
Total Strikes Landed6449
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 0021 063
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

Katlyn Cerminara controlled the striking through superior volume (64 vs 49 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (22 vs 27), superior accuracy (19.1% vs 42.2%), 1 knockdown. However, since Katlyn Cerminara lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Liz Carmouche's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Katlyn Cerminara: -87Liz Carmouche: +87

Performance Statistics

MetricKatlyn CerminaraLiz Carmouche
Takedowns Landed04
Takedowns Attempted07
Ground Control Time0:107:36
Ground Strikes Landed24
Ground ELO9331 027
ELO Change-87+87
💡

What Happened

Liz Carmouche controlled Katlyn Cerminara on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 7:36 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Katlyn Cerminara: -23Liz Carmouche: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricKatlyn CerminaraLiz Carmouche
Days Since Last Fight123589
Activity ELO9971 015
ELO Change-23+20
💡

What Happened

Liz Carmouche demonstrated extended layoff with 589 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Liz Carmouche capitalized on this activity level, while Katlyn Cerminara's 123-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Katlyn Cerminara: -23Liz Carmouche: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricKatlyn CerminaraLiz Carmouche
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO9991 013
ELO Change-23+28
💡

What Happened

Liz Carmouche extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Katlyn Cerminara is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Katlyn Cerminara: -23Liz Carmouche: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricKatlyn CerminaraLiz Carmouche
Weight ClassWomen's BantamweightWomen's Bantamweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9971 004
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.