January 26, 2018
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Katlyn Cerminara | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 080 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Katlyn Cerminara's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Katlyn Cerminara for the expected result. Had Mara Romero Borella pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Katlyn Cerminara | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Katlyn Cerminara | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 089 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Katlyn Cerminara earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Katlyn Cerminara | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 68 | 79 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 252 | 211 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 047 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Mara Romero Borella controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (79 vs 68), superior accuracy (37.4% vs 27.0%). However, since Mara Romero Borella lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Katlyn Cerminara's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Katlyn Cerminara | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 986 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Katlyn Cerminara did not secure a significant ground advantage against Mara Romero Borella on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Katlyn Cerminara | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 295 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 057 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Katlyn Cerminara demonstrated standard activity with 295 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Katlyn Cerminara capitalized on this activity level, while Mara Romero Borella's 113-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Katlyn Cerminara | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Katlyn Cerminara extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mara Romero Borella is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Katlyn Cerminara | Mara Romero Borella |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.