May 23, 2014
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Katsunori Kikuno | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Tony Ferguson's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tony Ferguson for the expected result. Had Katsunori Kikuno pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Katsunori Kikuno | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Katsunori Kikuno | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:06 | 4:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 013 | 1 228 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +58 |
Tony Ferguson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:06, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Katsunori Kikuno | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 44 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 958 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -78 | +78 |
Tony Ferguson controlled the striking exchanges with 38 vs 22 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Katsunori Kikuno | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:23 | 0:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 057 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Tony Ferguson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Katsunori Kikuno on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:37 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Katsunori Kikuno | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 006 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Katsunori Kikuno's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Katsunori Kikuno | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +21 |
Tony Ferguson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Katsunori Kikuno is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Katsunori Kikuno | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.