November 3, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kaue Fernandes | Marc Diakiese |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Marc Diakiese's 14-fight experience advantage (15 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marc Diakiese for the expected result. Had Kaue Fernandes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kaue Fernandes | Marc Diakiese |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kaue Fernandes | Marc Diakiese |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 992 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Marc Diakiese receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Kaue Fernandes | Marc Diakiese |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 983 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Kaue Fernandes controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (23 vs 13), superior accuracy (54.8% vs 40.6%). However, since Kaue Fernandes lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Marc Diakiese's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kaue Fernandes | Marc Diakiese |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:27 | 8:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 926 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Marc Diakiese dominated Kaue Fernandes on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 8:38 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kaue Fernandes | Marc Diakiese |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 106 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +39 |
Marc Diakiese demonstrated solid activity levels with 106 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marc Diakiese capitalized on this activity level, while Kaue Fernandes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kaue Fernandes | Marc Diakiese |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +23 |
Marc Diakiese started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kaue Fernandes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kaue Fernandes | Marc Diakiese |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.