July 19, 2024
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kaynan Kruschewsky | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 940 | 939 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Kurt Holobaugh's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kurt Holobaugh for the expected result. Had Kaynan Kruschewsky pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kaynan Kruschewsky | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 958 | 957 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kaynan Kruschewsky | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 922 | 977 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Kurt Holobaugh earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Kaynan Kruschewsky | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 89 | 92 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 156 | 171 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 115 | 171 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 901 | 915 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Kurt Holobaugh dominated the striking exchanges with 171 vs 115 total strikes. Kurt Holobaugh capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kaynan Kruschewsky | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:47 | 5:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 937 | 875 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Kurt Holobaugh edged out Kaynan Kruschewsky on the ground with 1 takedown, 5:21 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kaynan Kruschewsky | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 959 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +59 |
Kurt Holobaugh demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kurt Holobaugh capitalized on this activity level, while Kaynan Kruschewsky's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kaynan Kruschewsky | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 958 | 962 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Kurt Holobaugh started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kaynan Kruschewsky is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kaynan Kruschewsky | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 958 | 957 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.