March 18, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 926 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +24 |
Paddy Pimblett overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kazula Vargas.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 963 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:49 | 3:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 965 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +48 |
Paddy Pimblett earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:49, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 987 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Kazula Vargas controlled the striking through superior accuracy (77.8% vs 50.0%). However, since Kazula Vargas lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Paddy Pimblett's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:43 | 0:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 892 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Paddy Pimblett controlled Kazula Vargas on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:53 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 330 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 960 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Paddy Pimblett demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Paddy Pimblett capitalized on this activity level, while Kazula Vargas's 330-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 965 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +22 |
Paddy Pimblett extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kazula Vargas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Paddy Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 963 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.