April 23, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Rongzhu |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 947 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Kazula Vargas's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kazula Vargas for the expected result. Had Rongzhu pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Rongzhu |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Rongzhu |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 994 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Kazula Vargas earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Rongzhu |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 96 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 176 | 105 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 111 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 001 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Kazula Vargas dominated the striking exchanges with 111 vs 49 total strikes, 96 vs 42 significant strikes, 54.5% vs 40.0% accuracy. Kazula Vargas capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Rongzhu |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:10 | 2:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 933 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Kazula Vargas did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rongzhu on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:10 of control time, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Rongzhu |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 434 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -24 |
Kazula Vargas demonstrated extended layoff with 434 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Kazula Vargas capitalized on this activity level, while Rongzhu's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Rongzhu |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Kazula Vargas started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rongzhu is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kazula Vargas | Rongzhu |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

