October 6, 2005
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keigo Kunihara | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Keigo Kunihara | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keigo Kunihara | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:02 | 1:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +65 |
Marcio Cruz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Keigo Kunihara was submitted.
| Metric | Keigo Kunihara | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 936 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Marcio Cruz edged the striking exchanges with 12 vs 1 significant strikes, 42.9% vs 10.0% accuracy. Marcio Cruz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Keigo Kunihara | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:15 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 958 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Marcio Cruz edged out Keigo Kunihara on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:27 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Keigo Kunihara | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Marcio Cruz demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Marcio Cruz capitalized on this activity level, while Keigo Kunihara's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keigo Kunihara | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Marcio Cruz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keigo Kunihara is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keigo Kunihara | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

