July 12, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 981 | 919 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -33 |
Keita Nakamura overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kyle Noke.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 976 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 091 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | +101 | -65 |
Keita Nakamura earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:59, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kyle Noke was submitted.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 113 | 77 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 038 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -87 |
Keita Nakamura controlled the striking exchanges with 36.3% vs 57.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Keita Nakamura capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:32 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 964 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -86 |
Keita Nakamura controlled Kyle Noke on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:32 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 137 | 193 |
| Activity ELO | 1 011 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -28 |
Keita Nakamura demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Keita Nakamura capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Noke's 193-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -26 |
Keita Nakamura started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kyle Noke is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Kyle Noke |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 976 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

