September 25, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 956 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 966 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:17 | 2:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 012 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +92 | -61 |
Keita Nakamura earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:17, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Li Jingliang was submitted.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 79 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 142 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 85 | 88 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 982 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Li Jingliang controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (79 vs 40), 1 knockdown. However, since Li Jingliang lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Keita Nakamura's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:21 | 1:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 911 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -86 |
Keita Nakamura controlled Li Jingliang on the ground with 0 takedowns, 4:21 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 2 793 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 969 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -26 |
Keita Nakamura demonstrated extended layoff with 2793 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Keita Nakamura capitalized on this activity level, while Li Jingliang's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 969 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -26 |
Keita Nakamura started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Li Jingliang is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 966 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.