February 1, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 914 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 940 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 920 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rob Emerson receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 81 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 191 | 212 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 89 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 907 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Rob Emerson controlled the striking exchanges with 89 vs 66 total strikes, 81 vs 57 significant strikes, 38.2% vs 29.8% accuracy. Rob Emerson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:28 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 825 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Rob Emerson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Keita Nakamura on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 304 | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 946 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Rob Emerson demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rob Emerson capitalized on this activity level, while Keita Nakamura's 304-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 940 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +20 |
Rob Emerson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keita Nakamura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Rob Emerson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 940 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.