November 30, 2018
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Salim Touahri |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 014 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Keita Nakamura's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Keita Nakamura for the expected result. Had Salim Touahri pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Salim Touahri |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Salim Touahri |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 038 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Keita Nakamura receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Salim Touahri |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 79 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 050 | 924 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Keita Nakamura controlled the striking exchanges with 41 vs 34 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Keita Nakamura capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Salim Touahri |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 988 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Keita Nakamura did not secure a significant ground advantage against Salim Touahri on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Salim Touahri |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 225 | 407 |
| Activity ELO | 1 022 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Keita Nakamura demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Keita Nakamura capitalized on this activity level, while Salim Touahri's 407-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Salim Touahri |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 997 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Keita Nakamura started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Salim Touahri is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Salim Touahri |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

