April 19, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Sultan Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +50 |
Sultan Aliev overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Keita Nakamura.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Sultan Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 965 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Sultan Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 988 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Sultan Aliev earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Sultan Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 63 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 022 | 962 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Keita Nakamura controlled the striking through superior volume (57 vs 32 total strikes). However, since Keita Nakamura lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sultan Aliev's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Sultan Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:18 | 5:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 953 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Sultan Aliev edged out Keita Nakamura on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:46 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Sultan Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 343 |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Sultan Aliev demonstrated standard activity with 343 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Sultan Aliev capitalized on this activity level, while Keita Nakamura's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Sultan Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 976 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +24 |
Sultan Aliev started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keita Nakamura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Sultan Aliev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 965 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.