February 26, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 937 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Tom Breese overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Keita Nakamura.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 950 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 990 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Tom Breese earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 88 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 951 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Tom Breese dominated the striking exchanges with 88 vs 16 total strikes, 32 vs 6 significant strikes, 54.2% vs 37.5% accuracy. Tom Breese capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:59 | 6:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 878 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Tom Breese controlled Keita Nakamura on the ground with 0 takedowns, 6:26 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 954 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +29 |
Tom Breese demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tom Breese capitalized on this activity level, while Keita Nakamura's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 953 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +21 |
Tom Breese extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keita Nakamura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keita Nakamura | Tom Breese |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 950 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

