Keita Nakamura vs Tom Breese

February 26, 2016

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

945
(-21)
Keita Nakamura
Winner: Tom Breese
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Keita Nakamura-21
Tom Breese+24
1120
(+24)
Tom Breese

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Keita Nakamura: -19Tom Breese: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricKeita NakamuraTom Breese
Total UFC Fights53
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO9371 124
ELO Change-19+21
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Keita Nakamura.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Keita Nakamura: -16Tom Breese: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricKeita NakamuraTom Breese
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9501 059
ELO Change-16+16
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Keita Nakamura: -22Tom Breese: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricKeita NakamuraTom Breese
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9901 212
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Keita Nakamura: -31Tom Breese: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricKeita NakamuraTom Breese
Significant Strikes Landed632
Significant Strikes Attempted1659
Total Strikes Landed1688
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9511 223
ELO Change-31+31
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese dominated the striking exchanges with 88 vs 16 total strikes, 32 vs 6 significant strikes, 54.2% vs 37.5% accuracy. Tom Breese capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Keita Nakamura: -33Tom Breese: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricKeita NakamuraTom Breese
Takedowns Landed30
Takedowns Attempted60
Ground Control Time3:596:26
Ground Strikes Landed010
Ground ELO8781 106
ELO Change-33+33
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese controlled Keita Nakamura on the ground with 0 takedowns, 6:26 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Keita Nakamura: -15Tom Breese: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricKeita NakamuraTom Breese
Days Since Last Fight155127
Activity ELO9541 105
ELO Change-15+29
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tom Breese capitalized on this activity level, while Keita Nakamura's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Keita Nakamura: -16Tom Breese: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricKeita NakamuraTom Breese
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO9531 072
ELO Change-16+21
💡

What Happened

Tom Breese extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keita Nakamura is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Keita Nakamura: -16Tom Breese: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricKeita NakamuraTom Breese
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9501 059
ELO Change-16+16
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.