February 19, 2010
Light Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 009 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +40 |
Ryan Bader overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Keith Jardine.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 015 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:10 | 2:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 056 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +65 |
Ryan Bader gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 62 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 897 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Ryan Bader controlled the striking exchanges with 55 vs 18 total strikes, 29 vs 15 significant strikes, 46.8% vs 20.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Ryan Bader capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 4:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 951 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Ryan Bader landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 135 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +50 |
Ryan Bader demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ryan Bader capitalized on this activity level, while Keith Jardine's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 024 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +27 |
Ryan Bader extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keith Jardine is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.