April 5, 2006
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 019 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 073 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Stephan Bonnar earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 118 | 93 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 52 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 088 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Keith Jardine controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (90 vs 52 total strikes), significant strike advantage (64 vs 33), superior accuracy (54.2% vs 35.5%). However, since Keith Jardine lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Stephan Bonnar's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:28 | 3:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 018 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Stephan Bonnar edged out Keith Jardine on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:54 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 61 | 80 |
| Activity ELO | 1 049 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +63 |
Stephan Bonnar demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 80 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Stephan Bonnar capitalized on this activity level, while Keith Jardine's 61-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +29 |
Stephan Bonnar extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keith Jardine is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Stephan Bonnar |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.