August 28, 2009
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 035 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +34 |
Thiago Silva overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Keith Jardine.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 034 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:35 | 1:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 088 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +59 |
Thiago Silva earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:35, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 931 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Thiago Silva controlled the striking exchanges with 62.5% vs 17.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 985 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 160 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +30 |
Thiago Silva demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Keith Jardine's 175-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 043 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Thiago Silva started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keith Jardine is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Keith Jardine | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.