March 21, 2002
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kelly Dullanty | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Matt Serra's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Serra for the expected result. Had Kelly Dullanty pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kelly Dullanty | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kelly Dullanty | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:58 | 2:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 956 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +76 |
Matt Serra earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Kelly Dullanty | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 951 | 970 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Matt Serra slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 25.0% vs 0.0% accuracy. Matt Serra capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kelly Dullanty | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 2:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 895 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -105 | +105 |
Matt Serra dominated Kelly Dullanty on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:22 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kelly Dullanty | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +34 |
Matt Serra demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Serra capitalized on this activity level, while Kelly Dullanty's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kelly Dullanty | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Matt Serra extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelly Dullanty is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kelly Dullanty | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

