Kelly Dullanty vs Matt Serra

March 21, 2002

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

961
(-39)
Kelly Dullanty
Winner: Matt Serra
Submission
Round 1 • 2:58

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Kelly Dullanty-39
Matt Serra+45
1047
(+45)
Matt Serra

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Kelly Dullanty: -31Matt Serra: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricKelly DullantyMatt Serra
Total UFC Fights13
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO9691 038
ELO Change-31+31
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What Happened

Matt Serra's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Serra for the expected result. Had Kelly Dullanty pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Kelly Dullanty: -21Matt Serra: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricKelly DullantyMatt Serra
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9791 024
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Kelly Dullanty: -44Matt Serra: +76

Performance Statistics

MetricKelly DullantyMatt Serra
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:582:58
Win Type ELO9561 062
ELO Change-44+76
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What Happened

Matt Serra earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Kelly Dullanty: -49Matt Serra: +49

Performance Statistics

MetricKelly DullantyMatt Serra
Significant Strikes Landed02
Significant Strikes Attempted18
Total Strikes Landed1714
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO951970
ELO Change-49+49
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What Happened

Matt Serra slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 25.0% vs 0.0% accuracy. Matt Serra capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Kelly Dullanty: -105Matt Serra: +105

Performance Statistics

MetricKelly DullantyMatt Serra
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time0:112:22
Ground Strikes Landed02
Ground ELO8951 166
ELO Change-105+105
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What Happened

Matt Serra dominated Kelly Dullanty on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:22 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Kelly Dullanty: -19Matt Serra: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricKelly DullantyMatt Serra
Days Since Last FightN/A176
Activity ELO9811 061
ELO Change-19+34
💡

What Happened

Matt Serra demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Serra capitalized on this activity level, while Kelly Dullanty's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Kelly Dullanty: -21Matt Serra: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricKelly DullantyMatt Serra
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO9791 031
ELO Change-21+25
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What Happened

Matt Serra extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelly Dullanty is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Kelly Dullanty: -21Matt Serra: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricKelly DullantyMatt Serra
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9791 024
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.