February 20, 2016
Women's Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kelly Faszholz | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 963 | 972 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Lauren Murphy's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lauren Murphy for the expected result. Had Kelly Faszholz pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kelly Faszholz | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 976 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kelly Faszholz | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:55 | 4:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 951 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +97 |
Lauren Murphy gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Kelly Faszholz | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 76 | 95 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 145 | 171 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 96 | 188 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 926 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Lauren Murphy dominated the striking exchanges with 188 vs 96 total strikes, 95 vs 76 significant strikes. Lauren Murphy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kelly Faszholz | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:01 | 6:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 36 |
| Ground ELO | 911 | 991 |
| ELO Change | -89 | +89 |
Lauren Murphy controlled Kelly Faszholz on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 6:16 of control time, 36 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kelly Faszholz | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 324 |
| Activity ELO | 976 | 982 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Lauren Murphy demonstrated standard activity with 324 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Lauren Murphy capitalized on this activity level, while Kelly Faszholz's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kelly Faszholz | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 976 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Lauren Murphy started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelly Faszholz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kelly Faszholz | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 976 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.