November 20, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 184 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Neil Magny's 5-fight experience advantage (13 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Neil Magny for the expected result. Had Kelvin Gastelum pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 082 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 340 | 1 315 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Neil Magny receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 134 | 145 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 86 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 270 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Kelvin Gastelum controlled the striking through 2 knockdowns. However, since Kelvin Gastelum lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Neil Magny's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 14 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:15 | 5:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 322 | 1 388 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Neil Magny controlled Kelvin Gastelum on the ground with 6 vs 2 takedowns, 5:34 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 211 | 1 427 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +28 |
Neil Magny demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Neil Magny capitalized on this activity level, while Kelvin Gastelum's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 131 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Neil Magny extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelvin Gastelum is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Neil Magny |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 082 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

