Kelvin Gastelum vs Neil Magny

November 20, 2015

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1203
(-26)
Kelvin Gastelum
Winner: Neil Magny
Decision - Split
Round 5 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Kelvin Gastelum-26
Neil Magny+29
1266
(+29)
Neil Magny

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Kelvin Gastelum: -37Neil Magny: +37

Performance Statistics

MetricKelvin GastelumNeil Magny
Total UFC Fights813
Experience Gap-55
Experience ELO1 1841 201
ELO Change-37+37
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What Happened

Neil Magny's 5-fight experience advantage (13 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Neil Magny for the expected result. Had Kelvin Gastelum pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Kelvin Gastelum: -20Neil Magny: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricKelvin GastelumNeil Magny
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0821 136
ELO Change-20+20
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Kelvin Gastelum: -12Neil Magny: +12

Performance Statistics

MetricKelvin GastelumNeil Magny
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round55
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 3401 315
ELO Change-12+12
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Neil Magny receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Kelvin Gastelum: -21Neil Magny: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricKelvin GastelumNeil Magny
Significant Strikes Landed5454
Significant Strikes Attempted134145
Total Strikes Landed8681
Knockdowns Scored20
Striking ELO1 2701 306
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum controlled the striking through 2 knockdowns. However, since Kelvin Gastelum lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Neil Magny's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Kelvin Gastelum: -72Neil Magny: +72

Performance Statistics

MetricKelvin GastelumNeil Magny
Takedowns Landed26
Takedowns Attempted314
Ground Control Time7:155:34
Ground Strikes Landed74
Ground ELO1 3221 388
ELO Change-72+72
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What Happened

Neil Magny controlled Kelvin Gastelum on the ground with 6 vs 2 takedowns, 5:34 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Kelvin Gastelum: -11Neil Magny: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricKelvin GastelumNeil Magny
Days Since Last Fight16291
Activity ELO1 2111 427
ELO Change-11+28
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What Happened

Neil Magny demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Neil Magny capitalized on this activity level, while Kelvin Gastelum's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Kelvin Gastelum: -18Neil Magny: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricKelvin GastelumNeil Magny
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 1311 218
ELO Change-18+22
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What Happened

Neil Magny extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelvin Gastelum is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Kelvin Gastelum: -20Neil Magny: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricKelvin GastelumNeil Magny
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0821 136
ELO Change-20+20
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.