March 14, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 128 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -38 |
Kelvin Gastelum overcame a 12-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rick Story.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 124 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Kelvin Gastelum receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 137 | 163 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 155 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Kelvin Gastelum edged the striking exchanges with 59 vs 45 significant strikes, 43.1% vs 27.6% accuracy. Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:29 | 2:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 221 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Kelvin Gastelum edged out Rick Story on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:29 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 200 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 102 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -31 |
Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated standard activity with 200 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Rick Story's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 083 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -27 |
Kelvin Gastelum extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rick Story is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.