April 16, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 242 | 1 389 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Robert Whittaker overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (17 vs 19 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kelvin Gastelum.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 098 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 430 | 1 648 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Robert Whittaker earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 62 | 150 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 209 | 284 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 169 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 295 | 1 635 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Robert Whittaker dominated the striking exchanges with 169 vs 70 total strikes, 150 vs 62 significant strikes, 52.8% vs 29.7% accuracy. Robert Whittaker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:26 | 4:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 217 | 1 457 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Robert Whittaker dominated Kelvin Gastelum on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 4:19 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 1 280 | 1 421 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +27 |
Robert Whittaker demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Robert Whittaker capitalized on this activity level, while Kelvin Gastelum's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 159 | 1 431 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +10 |
Robert Whittaker extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelvin Gastelum is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 084 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.