December 1, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 15 | -15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 204 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +56 |
Sean Brady overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kelvin Gastelum.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:43 | 1:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 365 | 1 374 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +86 |
Sean Brady earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:43, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kelvin Gastelum was submitted.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 32 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 97 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 234 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Sean Brady dominated the striking exchanges with 97 vs 21 total strikes. Sean Brady capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:19 | 9:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 167 | 1 555 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Sean Brady dominated Kelvin Gastelum on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 9:06 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 407 |
| Activity ELO | 1 246 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +25 |
Sean Brady demonstrated extended layoff with 407 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Sean Brady capitalized on this activity level, while Kelvin Gastelum's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 132 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Sean Brady started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelvin Gastelum is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kelvin Gastelum | Sean Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.