March 29, 2019
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Paul Craig's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Craig for the expected result. Had Kennedy Nzechukwu pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:20 | 4:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 960 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +60 |
Paul Craig earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:20, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kennedy Nzechukwu was submitted.
| Metric | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 72 | 77 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 973 | 926 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Kennedy Nzechukwu controlled the striking through superior volume (47 vs 31 total strikes), significant strike advantage (40 vs 25), superior accuracy (55.6% vs 32.5%). However, since Kennedy Nzechukwu lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Paul Craig's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:24 | 1:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 22 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 934 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Paul Craig controlled Kennedy Nzechukwu on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:38 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +54 |
Paul Craig demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Paul Craig capitalized on this activity level, while Kennedy Nzechukwu's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Paul Craig started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kennedy Nzechukwu is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

