September 16, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 001 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 994 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 179 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Roan Carneiro receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 134 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 149 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Roan Carneiro slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 33 vs 28 significant strikes, 47.1% vs 20.9% accuracy. Roan Carneiro capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:12 | 2:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 181 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Roan Carneiro edged out Kenny Robertson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:37 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 420 | 209 |
| Activity ELO | 1 048 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +31 |
Roan Carneiro demonstrated standard activity with 209 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Roan Carneiro capitalized on this activity level, while Kenny Robertson's 420-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Roan Carneiro started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kenny Robertson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 994 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

