March 22, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Thiago Perpetuo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 997 | 922 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Kenny Robertson's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kenny Robertson for the expected result. Had Thiago Perpetuo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Thiago Perpetuo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 992 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Thiago Perpetuo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:45 | 1:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 103 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -43 |
Kenny Robertson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Thiago Perpetuo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 113 | 903 |
| ELO Change | +92 | -92 |
Kenny Robertson edged the striking exchanges with 9 vs 0 significant strikes, 64.3% vs 0.0% accuracy. Kenny Robertson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Thiago Perpetuo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:03 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 165 | 920 |
| ELO Change | +113 | -113 |
Kenny Robertson dominated Thiago Perpetuo on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:03 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Thiago Perpetuo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 282 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 007 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Kenny Robertson demonstrated standard activity with 282 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Kenny Robertson capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Perpetuo's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Thiago Perpetuo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 998 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Kenny Robertson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Perpetuo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Kenny Robertson | Thiago Perpetuo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 992 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.