January 13, 2023
Women's Bantamweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ketlen Vieira | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 150 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Raquel Pennington's 7-fight experience advantage (17 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Raquel Pennington for the expected result. Had Ketlen Vieira pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ketlen Vieira | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 080 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ketlen Vieira | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 155 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Raquel Pennington receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Ketlen Vieira | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 81 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 152 | 159 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 138 | 104 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 998 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Raquel Pennington controlled the striking exchanges with 104 vs 138 total strikes, 81 vs 64 significant strikes, 50.9% vs 42.1% accuracy. Raquel Pennington capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ketlen Vieira | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:45 | 1:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 217 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Raquel Pennington did not secure a significant ground advantage against Ketlen Vieira on the ground with 1:18 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Ketlen Vieira | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 281 |
| Activity ELO | 1 133 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Raquel Pennington demonstrated standard activity with 281 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Raquel Pennington capitalized on this activity level, while Ketlen Vieira's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ketlen Vieira | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 103 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +36 |
Raquel Pennington continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Ketlen Vieira's now at 0.
| Metric | Ketlen Vieira | Raquel Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 074 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

